2018 Election Round-Up Summary & Future
January 21, 2019
In August of 2013, The National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee was launched to convince Dr. Ben Carson to run for President of the United States.
We collected and delivered more than 550,000 petitions and clamorings to Dr. Carson.
At first he laughed our efforts off, but with the help of more than 200,000 supporters and more than 36,000 volunteers, as well as our paid staff whose numbers rose to more than 100 during the height of the campaign, eventually he heard our call and announced his candidacy in May of 2015.
That’s when we changed our name to The 2016 Committee.
Unfortunately, Ben Carson pulled out of the race in March, stating:
You know there's a lot of people who love me, they just won't vote for me.
We, and his hundreds of thousands of supporters were disappointed, but feel proud that we pulled off the second successful true draft effort in the history of the United States. (The first successful draft effort was in the early 1960s for Barry Goldwater who finally gave in to the public's demand and announced his candidacy in 1964.)
And though we began this effort with only one goal: electing Dr. Ben Carson as the next President of the United States, when Donald Trump became the GOP nominee, we made a commitment to keeping Hillary Clinton from occupying the White House. That’s why The 2016 Committee launched The Victory Project.
The goal of the Victory Project was to propel Donald Trump into the White House by appealing to African American voters.
Following proven strategies to recruit Black and Hispanic voters to the conservative cause as proven by the late Richard Nader (1948-2009), a leading political theorist, researcher and activist, in the months leading up to the 2016 presidential election, we strategically placed Black radio ads in five key swing states: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. In these five states, Trump outperformed Romney in the African American vote by a combined 7.8%!
Upon President Trump's win, we saw an opportunity to cement his victory and conservative agenda. So we renamed the 2016 Committee to the Stars and Stripes Forever PAC, harkening back to the values espoused by John Philip Sousa, great-grandfather to our National Chairman, John Philip Sousa IV. Armed with our proven strategy, now dubbed The Nadler Method, we geared up for a long-term, sustained campaign to defeat the most vulnerable, liberal Senate incumbents and replace them with solid Conservatives.
So, in early 2017, we identified nine Senate races where the Liberal Incumbents were most vulnerable and where Conservatives could pick-up the seat and deliver a filibuster-proof Senate to President Trump as he started the second half of his term.
Later in the year, we removed three of those seats and focused on six main Senate contests where African American populations were the highest.
Those states were Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
I'm pleased to say, that due in part to your help, this Committee helped Mike Braun defeat Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Josh Hawley defeat Claire McCaskill in Missouri, giving President Trump two more allies in the Senate as we kick-off 2019.
In addition, our week long radio blitz on Black radio to help stop Mike Espy and the Democrats from stealing the Mississippi Senate seat from Cindy Hyde-Smith paid off. Cindy will be returning to the Senate in 2019.
All in all, Stars and Stripes Forever PAC was involved in more than 18 crucial races and spent over $575,000 on radio, billboards, newspaper and brochures to dispel the lies the Democrats have been feeding Black Americans for years.
The following pages provide details about each of these races...
2018 Main Race
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $118,573.54
Analysis: Blacks cast 71,078 fewer votes this year than in 2016. Despite that fact, Black males delivered only 3,000 fewer votes than in 2016 to the Republican Mike Braun. We took a bigger hit with Black women from 19,724 to 6,833 — a nearly 13,000 vote difference. Still that only adds up to around 16,000 fewer votes for the Republican. That means the other 55,100 Black voters who didn’t vote this year, didn’t vote for the Democrat, Joe Donnelly.
Blacks voted at a rate 21% higher this year for Mike Braun, the Republican for Senate, than they did for Donald Trump in 2016.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $27,548.21
Analysis: Despite a Black drop-off in voting of 102,492 voters, John James the Republican, received 6,424 more votes than Trump from black voters. That represents a 25% increase in Black votes for a Republican this year compared to 2016. It wasn’t enough to win, but in the end, it wasn’t Blacks who let us down, it was the segment of White voters who voted for Trump in 2016, but voted for Stabenow this year.
Of great interest though, is the fact that Black females tripled the rate at which they voted for a Republican (3% for Trump in 2016; 9% for John James.) In Michigan, our final message to Black voters centered on the high abortion rate of Black babies. The percentage increase of the female Black vote tells us our messaging was spot-on.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $45,387.08
Analysis: At this time it appears that Black voter turnout between 2016 and 2018 dropped significantly more in Missouri than in any other state. 205,465 fewer Black voters voted in Missouri in 2018 than in 2016. To put the import of that into perspective, if Black drop-off in Missouri had been the same as it was in most other places, McCaskill would have received an additional 53,505 votes. Given she was beat by 145,236 votes, it would not have made a difference in the outcome, but in a tighter race it could have more than made up the difference. Our final messages to Black voters in Missouri centered on the high abortion rate of Black babies and how Black pastors refer to that as Black Genocide and another message that informed the Black voter that the Black unemployment rate is lower than ever before and more Blacks have jobs under President Trump than any other president.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $31,159.48
Analysis: Black female support for the Republican more than doubled in 2018 from what it was for Trump in 2016: 4% for Trump to 9% for Renacci. Despite 145,000 fewer Black women voting in Ohio this election, the number of Black women who voted Republican increased from 19,066 in 2016 to 27,325 in 2018. We were surprised by that considering Ohio has a gender gap among women overall of of 21 points (60% for Brown; 39% for Renacci.) The only thing we can attribute this to is that our final ad up to the election focused on Senator Brown’s support for abortion.
Overall, the Black male vote stayed more or less stable between 2016 (13% for Trump in 2016) and 2018 (14% for Renacci) — but there was a 7% increase in Black votes for the Republican.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $22,419.74
Analysis: Black turnout increased in 2018 to 13% from 2016's 10%. That increase equated to 15,701 votes. Even more interesting, of those 15,701 votes, the Republican received almost all of them. This year the Republican received 50,580 Black votes compared to Trump in 2016, who received 43,158 — a difference of 7,422.
Most of those votes came from Black women who doubled from 2% to 4% the rate at which they voted for the Republican. In 2016, Trump received the votes of 7,769 Black women, and this year, the Republican received votes from 13,618 Black women — a difference of 5,849 ballots.
Our final ads in this contest focused on the Democrats support of Obama's "catch and release" program, Casey's support of Sanctuary Cities and how illegal immigrants take jobs from Black Americans.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $70,414.78
Analysis: We had a huge impact among Blacks in Wisconsin where Trump received only 6% of Black votes in 2016. This year, Blacks cast ballots for Leah Vukmir, the Republican, at the rate of 14%.
Despite 20,159 fewer Black votes cast in Wisconsin this year than 2016, Vukmir received more than double the Black votes that Trump received - 12,500 for Trump; 31,988 for Vukmir — a difference of 19,488 votes.
There’s not much question that Baldwin’s open homosexuality and the fact we ended with messages on Muslim education and Baldwin’s strong support for abortion helped us win votes among Christian Blacks, most of whom are women.
Unfortunately, like in Pennsylvania and Michigan, our increased percentage in Black votes wasn’t enough to win. Like in those states, Wisconsin’s working class Whites defected at a rate high enough to give Democrats the victory.
California's 43rd House District
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $111,845.95
Analysis: Going into this, we knew this was a long shot, but we could not sit back and do nothing while "Mad Max" went on tirade after tirade calling for the impeachment of President Trump and attacking him and his policies every step of the way.
We kept our programs running against Maxine Waters from early 2017 through Election Day in hopes of convincing the voters of California's 43rd District that Maxine was corrupt, self-serving, and unhinged and they deserved better after living under her leadership in the House over 26 years.
From just looking at the results, you'd surmise that our efforts had no impact, but if you compare the votes Maxine Waters received in 2016 versus 2018, she received 69,106 less votes in 2018. We believe our billboards and newspaper advertisements targeted to Black Americans and Hispanics in her district caused her constituents to doubt her motives and they decided that casting their vote for Rep. Waters again may not be in their best interest.
Second Tier Races
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $5,571.41
Analysis: As Heidi Heitkamp only received 50% of the vote in 2012, we knew that if President Trump did well in the first half of his presidency, with the right challenger, Heitkamp would lose. Though it's very difficult to unseat an incumbent, even if they are not of the party dominated by the state, Heitkamp won in 2012 with a razor-thin margin based on her claims to be a moderate. After six years in the Senate, the citizens of North Dakota realized they were duped and voted for true Conservative, President Trump supporter Kevin Cramer.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $22,194.38
Analysis: Virginia historically had been a red state, however, in the 1990's it started to slowly turn purple and the Democrats have continued to pick up support as they campaign on a socially moderate and fiscally conservative message. Nonetheless, our early research showed that Tim Kaine was vulnerable and could be beaten, so we launched our ads. After Corey Stewart won the primary, updated data showed his primary win over Del. Nick Freitas, sealed Tim Kaine's victory and we pulled out of Virginia.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $18,539.64
Analysis: Elizabeth Warren is one of the most radical, liberals in the Senate. She's a Trump-Hater and an obstructionist and Stars and Stripes and our supporters think it's time for Warren to go. Unfortunately, the results tell us that Bay Staters don't share our opinion.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $551.97
Analysis: Sometimes third-party candidates gum up the works as happened in this case. In the last two weeks before the election Morrisey gained six percentage points. If it had not been for the Libertarian, Morrisey would have likely defeated Manchin.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $5,571.41
Analysis: This race was personal for President Trump as Jon Tester was one of the lawmakers responsible for destroying Trump's nominee to head the Department of Veterans Affairs. Another tight race and another instance of where the Libertarian Candidate siphoned votes away from the Republican.
California's 36th House
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $3,450.00
Analysis: After Kimberlin emerged victorious from a crowded primary, we knew we had to try and help her defeat Pelosi-Puppet Ruiz. The partisan makeup of the district made it one of the best of any Republican takeover opportunities in the country, however Ruiz out-raised her 4 to 1 as Democrats fought tooth-and-nail to keep this seat.
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $27,651
(Support: $13,825.50 - Oppose: $13,825.50)
Analysis: After the General Election, Cindy Hyde-Smith was force into a Special Runoff Election on November 27 with Mike Espy, Former Secretary of Agriculture under Bill Clinton.
Pro-Trump Mississippi was the Democrats final chance this election to cut into Republicans' Senate majority and they poured money into Espy's campaign left and right. Furthermore, they focused on gaining votes from African Americans.
We aired 360 ads in the week leading up to the election to stop the Democrats from stealing this seat. Clearly our effort paid off.
2017 Special Elections
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $45,972.92
Independent Expenditures 03/17/17 - 10/17/18: $10,681.61
(Support: $4,480.61 - Oppose: $6,201)
Total Independent Expenditures for 2017 - 2018* --------------------- $575,760.77
*Incomplete until FEC Final Report for 2018
($8227.65 not allocated to a specific race)
Summary and Future
We fought many tough battles in 2017 and 2018 and finished with mixed results.
Though we lost 11 of the 16 races we were involved in, the five that did win will be of utmost importance to Conservatives and to President Trump in the second-half of his term as well as over the next six years.
In addition, there is much to appreciate in the numbers other than just who won and who lost.
For example, National voter turnout reached levels not seen in mid-term elections since 1914, making 2018 the largest mid-term turn-out in 100 years.
In Indiana 18% of Black males voted for the Republican, that’s about a 10 point gap with Black women. Nationwide, there was an 8 point gap between women and men. So the gap in Black gender votes mirrors what was happening among voters generally.
18% of Black males voting Republican is significant. When and if that number gets to 25%, then we could reasonably expect Black women to be around 15% given the current political environment. That kind of vote, if it could be duplicated in places like Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan, would almost assure a Republican win in the future at the Electoral College and continued Republican majority in the Senate.
The fact that in the midst of that kind of massive turnout, Black turnout in Missouri actually dropped from 14% in 2016 by 42% this year to just 8% is a little astonishing. Unfortunately, we can’t compare turnout to the last mid-term in 2014 because there weren’t any statewide races in Missouri. Still, we generally lose to Democrats not because Blacks overwhelmingly vote for Democrats, but rather because of huge spikes in Black turnout. But this year, at least in Missouri, while turnout spiked among nearly every subgroup, it dropped by 42% among Blacks despite a multi-million dollar effort by Democrats to cause such a spike in Black turnout. We can attribute the lack of that spike among Blacks in Missouri to our ads in the state aimed at making sure that Blacks heard the truth. In short, we created enough doubt in their minds about McCaskill's policies that they did not feel confident in voting for her.
Further, Black votes in Ohio for the Republican increased by 38% in 2018 over Blacks voting for Trump in 2016 and in Michigan, Black votes for the Republican increased by 25% in 2018.
Even more encouraging, in Wisconsin, Leah Vukmir received 14% of the Black
vote -- nearly double of what Trump received in 2016. And maybe the most important number in the whole matrix is that 17% of Black women in Wisconsin voted for the Republican.
The sampling of data on Black males wasn’t large enough to study, but since Baldwin won both men and women overall, and since the aggregate gender gap was 12% — we can see something remarkable happened with Black women. First, our ads in Wisconsin focused on the Muslim education issue and abortion. Those two issues caused Black women to do something women nowhere else did — outperform males in their votes for the Republican. Second, the fact Baldwin is proud of her lesbianism, and made that a central theme in her campaign, probably worked against her with religious voters including Blacks. Certainly our messaging reinforced that concern among Black Christians who are mostly women.
So if you look further than just win or loss, you will see that communicating to Black Americans makes a significant impact.
Starting in August of 2013 with the Draft Ben Carson for President Committee, moving into 2014 with the North Carolina Senate victory of Conservative Thom Tillis over incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan, then helping secure President Trump's election in 2016 and gaining two Republican seats in the Senate in 2018, we are more convinced than ever that our Nadler Method is the key to stopping the Democrats from their march to conquer American Voters.
With diminishing White support, Democrats know they must count on large minority turnout -- especially Blacks -- who make up 12% of the electorate. If they lose at least 17% of the Black vote, they will have a hard time continuing to win elections.
The time is right for Conservatives to take back our Country.
The Democratic Party of today is not your parent's Democratic Party. It doesn’t bear any resemblance to the party of John Kennedy or Tip O’Neil. Today the mainstream of the Democratic Party prefers socialism to free enterprise.
And frankly, their policies are not helping Black Americans improve their lives. On the contrary, their handouts just keep generation after generation dependent on the government for survival. And the Democrats know they need to keep it that way if they are going to win elections.
Year after year (2018 included), Democrats spend hundreds of millions of dollars every election cycle on advertising that claims conservative Republicans are evil … that we want to repeal anti-lynching laws — or ship Hispanic Americans to some other country … or that we are racists who want to keep minorities down.
But Republicans continue to ignore them at election time and instead spend millions trying to persuade a tiny percent of the electorate who are undecided, and spend absolutely nothing trying to add more voters to their coalition.
That's why we must continue our work to expose the Liberal's lies and communicate openly, honestly, and often with the Black community.
It is imperative that we continue to work to win over Black voters. Our success is the key to making America great again and crafting a long-lasting, Republican majority in America.
But because Republicans have ignored this trend to the extent that Black voters' support of Democrats has increased election after election beginning in 1968, we won't win them over that quickly or easily. It could take years to dispel the Democrats lies and prove conclusively to Black Americans that conservative Republicans are their true friend and want to see them prosper, and liberal Democrats are their real enemy and want to keep them on the Black Plantation.
We've made progress over the last two years as the Black approval rating for President Trump increased from 8% in 2016 to 35% in 2018.
We must continue to reach out to Black Americans and break the Democrats' stronghold over them.
Remember, the Democrats depend on receiving 90% of the African American vote. If it falls to 70%, they lose.
You can bet they know this and George Soros and his far left organizations will be pouring money into the 2020 Elections and fighting tooth and nail against President Trump and his Conservative allies.
The battle for America continues…